Estimate the expected value (EV) of a Magic: The Gathering—FINAL FANTASY Chocobo Bundle using live TCGplayer market prices plus the same Play Booster model used on the FIN page.
10 Play Boosters32 Landmark full-art basics (16 foil, 16 non-foil)10 Chocobo track foil basic landsPromo Paradise Chocobo2 random track borderless foils1 random Scene Box card
Assumption (not rarity-weighted):
For bundle inserts we assume uniform per-card odds because Wizards has not published anything more detailed.
• Chocobo Track — “2 of 20” foil: each of the 20 cards has equal odds (EV uses 2/20 per bundle across the set).
• Scene Card — “1 of 24” non‑foil: each of the 24 cards has equal odds (EV uses 1/24 per bundle across the set).
Guaranteed bundle cards
Basic lands
32 FINAL FANTASY Landmark full-art basic lands (16 traditional foil, 16 non-foil)
10 special Chocobo track foil basic lands
Special cards
1 traditional foil “Paradise Chocobo” promo card (Birds of Paradise reprint)
2 random Chocobo track foil borderless cards
1 random non-foil card from a 24-card FINAL FANTASY Scene Box pool (1 per bundle)
Included sets ▶
Sift is a price floor (USD): rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if you enable the toggle below.
Selling Fees
Per‑row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order is added only in the summary.
Value Threshold
Mid and Low pull from TCGCSV (TCGplayer mirror). “Min” chooses the lowest non-null value, and Market falls back to whichever price is available.
Rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if toggled on, and it is applied per card as packs are drawn (always use the stricter method).
EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.
Low/High = central quantiles measured from Monte Carlo pack openings.
Purchase EV
Adds per-order shipping costs plus any TCGplayer order-processing fee (when applicable) in the summary.
Pack & Box EV
Low
Mid
High
10 Play Pack gross
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Bundle non‑Play Booster cards (gross)
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Gross EV per bundle (Purchase ÷ Bundles)
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Total fees per bundle (Purchase ÷ Bundles)
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Net after fees per bundle (Purchase ÷ Bundles)
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Profit after fees per bundle (Purchase ÷ Bundles)
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Break‑even price/bundle (mid)
$0.00
Purchase EV & Profit
All boxes
Low
Mid
High
Gross EV
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Total fees
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Net after fees
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
Profit after expenses
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
ROI vs cost
—
—
—
Bundles: 0 • Price/bundle: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00
Simulation Results (after Sift)
Confidence band: —
Each bar groups simulated bundle totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = bundle value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.
Name
Set
Card #
Rarity
Treatment
Value
Seller fees
Bundles / copy
Total (Expected / box) — included sets & Sift
0.00
Sanity total (Expected / box) — all modeled rows (game cards)
0.00
+ Token / art slot (1 per pack; excluded above)
0.00
Gap to 186 playing cards/bundle
0.00
Preparing…
Bundles / copy = 1 ÷ expected copies per bundle (10 × per‑pack probability). EV uses Sift only when
Use Sift (≥) is checked; row tinting always uses the numeric Sift value.
